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Solar activity forecast for the period May 08 - May 14, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B3.5-B9.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range: 95-155
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 67-128

Karolina Knesplova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 08 - May 14, 2026

Quiet:  May 10 - 14
Unsettled: May 8 - 10
Active: May 8, 10
Minor storm:   unlikely about May 14
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

After the last major storm event (K-index = 6 at the Budkov observatory), we expect geomagnetic activity decrease during the coming week.
We can divide the currently forecasted period to more unsettled with possible active event (till Sunday, May 10) and at most quiet period (since Monday, May 11, to Thursday, May 14).
Another storm event about May 14 is possible but unlike but it can occur likely since May 15.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 08 - May 14, 2026

Overall solar activity declined slowly but steadily in late April and early May. Eruptive activity was low, with active regions mostly small and featuring a simple magnetic field configuration. Geomagnetic activity increased significantly only on May 4, after which the polarity of the longitudinal component of the interplanetary magnetic field returned to positive values. The ionosphere did returned to a state favorable for shortwave propagation since May 6.

Solar activity is likely to remain at current levels, while should decline shortly and slightly in mid-May. Geomagnetically quiet days can be expected starting May 10 again. Prior to that, there will be a slight increase in activity, likely on May 8. No other significant fluctuations are likely.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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