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Solar activity forecast for the period February 13 - February 19, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.7-C5.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 99 -152
Events: class C (2-10/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 38-123

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 13 - February 19, 2026

Quiet: Feb 13 - 14
Unsettled: Feb 15 - 16, 19
Active: Feb 16 - 17, 19
Minor storm:  Feb 16 - 17
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

We expect quiet to unsettled conditions till Sunday, February 15.
Since this day, geomagnetic activity enhancement is possible. First half of next week, an active event with potential minor storm is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 13 - February 19, 2026

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 12, 2026

The last largest sunspot group, also known as NOAA active region 4366, which suddenly appeared in the southeast of the solar disk on January 30, has now disappeared. Until then, it was the source of a long series of energetically significant flares. (This group could reappear on the eastern limb of solar disk around February 23.) Overall solar activity declined, slowly at first, and more significantly after the setting of AR 4366.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with the exception of a disturbance on February 5 and calm days on February 8-9. Due to the absence of major and longer geomagnetic disturbances and despite the decline in solar radiation, ionospheric propagation conditions for short waves were mostly slightly above average.

A slight increase in solar activity can be expected from mid-February, meanwhile it appears that geomagnetic activity could also increase slightly at around the same time. Until then, ionospheric propagation conditions for short waves are likely to remain slightly above average.

It is not yet possible to predict whether the minor disturbances from January 16 to 17 and, in particular, the more significant disturbances around January 20 will recur (in the latter case, this would be around February 16, when geomagnetic activity is likely to increase, but probably only to an "active" level).

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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