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Solar activity forecast for the period March 13 - March 19, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B4.0-C2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 107-158
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0-0/period), proton (0-0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 57-119

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 13 - March 19, 2026

Quiet:  Mar 17 - 18
Unsettled: Mar 15 - 17, 19
Active: Mar 13 - 14, 19
Minor storm:  about Mar 14, 19
Major storm:  possible about Mar 14
Severe storm: 0

Because of coronal hole 31/+4, we expect geomagnetic activity enhance during the coming days. We expect at most active conditions with a possible storming event till the coming Sunday, March 15.
Then, we expect a partial activity decrease to an unsettled level, generally, till Thursday, March 19 when an another active event can occur.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 13 - March 19, 2026

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, March 12, 2026

In line with expectations, solar activity has been declining since the beginning of March, with occasional class C flares. It is still expected that the minimum level will be reached during the second ten days of March. The subsequent increase will come at the end of the month, while should be faster.

Geomagnetic activity is primarily influenced by the solar wind, so therefore the best guide for estimating future developments is to monitor the position and size of coronal holes. The current position of the long and narrow coronal hole No. 31, which is approaching the central meridian in the low heliographic latitudes, suggests that we should expect an increase in geomagnetic activity most likely on March 14, possibly as early as Friday the 13th.

In the first case, we can expect an improvement in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions on Saturday, March 14. But if the solar wind intensifies significantly on Friday, the development will be the opposite (i.e., improvement later on Friday and a rather slight deterioration on Saturday). The good news for shortwave propagation is the forecast of following increase in solar activity, so the best propagatio conditions could occur at the end of the month.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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