Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period July 10 - July 16, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate 
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B5.5-C1.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range: 112-130
Events: class C (2-10/day), class M (0-2/day), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 80-160

Martina Pavelkova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 10 - July 16, 2026

Quiet:   Jul 12 - 15
Unsettled: Jul 11 - 12, 15 - 16
Active:  Jul 10 - 11
Minor storm:  possible about  Jul 10 - 11
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

We expect geomagnetic activity enhancement to active level during the coming night and, also, at Friday, July 10.
Coming weekend, we expect the geomagnetic activity at most at unsettled level.
Since Sunday, July 12, we expect starting a most quiet intermezzo till Wednesday, July 15.
About the last day, an unsettled to active event is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere July 10 - July 16, 2026

The power flux of solar radio noise at a frequency of 2800 MHz (at a wavelength of 10.7 cm), which is measured precisely every day at noon local time in Penticton, Canada, and is referred to as the “solar flux,” remains at a relatively low level. The reason is that the number of observed sunspot groups on the solar disk dropped to just three on July 7, the lowest number recorded during a single solar rotation (the following day, their number increased to five). The largest active region, NOAA 4482, which we observe in the southeast of the solar disk, has not changed significantly in size and continues to produce moderate-intensity flares on a regular basis. All three coronal holes are currently relatively far from it. The intensity of the solar wind is changing only slightly; periods of increased geomagnetic activity alternate with quiet days, making it impossible to accurately predict future developments.

A more pronounced increase in solar activity is expected in the second half of July (with a gradual increase in solar flux up to 180 s.f.u.). More significant geomagnetic activity can be expected if major solar flares occur, especially if they occur near or west of the central meridian. This is likely to happen sometime in the second half of July.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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