Weekly forecast

Forecast issued date:

Solar activity forecast for the period October 02 - October 08, 2026

Activity level: very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.0-B5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range: 75-120
Events: class C (0-3/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 20-85

Karolina Knesplova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 02 - October 08, 2026

Quiet:   Oct 6 - 8
Unsettled: Oct 2 - 6
Active:  Oct 3 - 4
Minor storm: possible about Oct 2 - 3
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

Because of CME from September 28 and current coronal hole reaching the central heliographic latitudes, we expect an active event with possible minor storm event within the coming days. This level can persist to Sunday, October 4.
Since Monday, October 5, we expect a partial geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled level and then, since October 6, at most quiet conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere October 02 - October 08, 2026

Solar activity remains mostly low, while the only two sunspot groups are approaching the western limb of the solar disk. If they disappear and no other sunspots appear, we will see our fifth spotless day of the year. Nevertheless, there have been solar flares, the largest of which—a C8.6-class flare—reached its peak at 2:46 UTC on September 30 in region NOAA 4535. It was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio emissions; however, this CME is expected to miss Earth. However, Earth will most likely not escape the intensified solar wind from SIDC coronal hole No. 179, which is expected to hit Earth on October 3.

Solar activity is likely to remain low throughout the first half of October. The geomagnetic field will probably be mostly quiet. Propagation conditions should therefore be relatively stable with a regular diurnal cycle, though with limited openings on the shortest shortwave bands.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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