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Solar activity forecast for the period September 04 - September 10, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate 
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B5.0-C1.2
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range: 103-140
Events: class C (2-8/day), class M (1-3/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 42-112

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 04 - September 10, 2026

Quiet:   Sep 4 - 5
Unsettled: Sep 5 - 8
Active:  Sep 6 - 8
Minor storm: possible about Sep 7
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. 
This trend can be interrupted at the end of coming weekend by a possible active event, less likely, storm event.
Then, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere September 04 - September 10, 2026

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, September 3, 2026

A moderately strong solar flare (class M3.0), which peaked in the northeastern part of the solar disk on September 2 at 19:36 UTC, was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). This occurred in NOAA active region No. 4524, which was observed as NOAA No. 4510 during the previous solar rotation. Based on its reappearance and activity, we can conclude that the expected decline in overall solar activity in the first half of September will not be as severe as originally anticipated.

In the first half of September, we can expect only a very gradual increase in solar activity and likely only a few geomagnetically active days. Above all, however, we can expect a recurring rise in solar activity around the autumn equinox—which is precisely the combination that typically leads to a noticeable improvement in ionospheric propagation of shortwave signals. The subsequent rise in geomagnetic activity immediately following the equinox could, with a bit of luck, bring another brief, follow-up improvement at its onset.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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