Issued: 2026 August 16 17:00 UTC


Analysis from August 15/1700 UTC to August 16/1700 UTC:

Sunspot Regions on the Disk 16/1553 UTC (SDO Continuum): 10
The Largest Event: C3.7 from region 4507 at 16/0318 UT
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A) August 15: B4.4
Radio Flux 10.7 cm at 15/2300 UTC (Penticton): 118
Solar Wind Speed at 16/1645 UTC: 306.5 km/s, density : 1.5 p/cm^3


Forecast:

Activity level will be: low to moderate - explanation
Event probabilities: Class C: 99%, Class M: 45%, Class X: 15%, Proton: 10%
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B7.0-B9.0
Radio Flux 10.7 cm: a fluctuation in the range 115-125

Michael Vavra1
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz