Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period February 27 - March 05, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B5.0-C3.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 111-165
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 36-103

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 27 - March 05, 2026

Quiet: Feb 27 - 28, Mar 3 - 4
Unsettled: Mar 2 - 3
Active: Mar 1 - 2, 5
Minor storm:  about Mar 1, 5
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

Next two days, we expect, generally, geomagnetic activity decease to quiet to unsettled levels.
A significant geomagnetic activity enhancement can be expected about Sunday, March 1, when an active event with possible geomagnetic storm is possible.
Another active event can occur at the end of currently forecasted period, i.e. about March 5.
Between these ones, we expect at most unsettled intermezzo.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 27 - March 05, 2026

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 26, 2026

Between February 22 and 24, there was not a single spot on the solar disk, which last happened less than four years ago. The maximum of the 25th cycle is behind us, while the years 2024–2025 can be considered the years of cycle maximum. At the same time, the Sun is in a key phase of reversing its magnetic field. This process is a natural part of the 11-year solar cycle, usually occurring asymmetrically (the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun may reverse at slightly different times, with the process taking several months). The magnetic field in the polar regions of the Sun gradually weakens until it completely breaks down and reforms with the opposite polarity.

The next eleven-year solar minimum (the transition between the current 25th and future 26th cycles) is expected in 2030–2031, when the Sun's magnetic field will stabilize again and the star will enter a quiet period. A more precise date for the minimum will only be possible to determine at the end of the decade based on the current development of sunspots.

During the first week of March, solar activity should gradually increase and then decrease in the following week. Changes in the intensity of the solar wind will have the greatest impact on the development of shortwave propagation conditions. For prediction of these changes, it is recommended to monitor the position and area of coronal holes and, in particular, solar flares that will be located near their edges. This can be monitored excellently at https://www.solarham.com/, for example, and even professionals will confirm that you will find everything you need here to understand the causes of ongoing events and for operational practice. In addition, we can monitor the local effects in the ionosphere in detail especially thanks to ionospheric digisonde stations, dozens of which are available on the internet!

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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