Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period May 01 - May 07, 2026

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B6.5-C1.2
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range: 96-142
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 52-119

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 01 - May 07, 2026

Quiet:  May 1, 4 - 5
Unsettled: May 2 - 4
Active: May 3, 6, 7.
Minor storm:   May 7, unlikely about May 3
Major storm:  unlikely about May 7
Severe storm: 0

Currently, the geomagnetic field is quiet.
For most of the coming week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions till Thursday, May 7.
Before this time, it can be interrupted by more unsettled to active episode about Sunday, May 3.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 01 - May 07, 2026

Following a surprisingly low level of solar activity between April 9 and 13, when the solar flux fell below 100 s.f.u., there was a surprising reversal in the form of a significant increase in both overall and flare activity during the last third of April. On April 24, two X-class flares were observed,whereupon on April 26, the solar flux exceeded 150 s.f.u.

The last day with high geomagnetic activity was April 21. The rest of the month was mostly quiet. This was consistent with a reduction in the area of coronal holes, none of which were adjacent to active regions. Consequently, conditions for shortwave ionospheric propagation gradually improved, particularly in the final days of April.

A decline in solar activity is expected in the first third of May, while if the configuration of active regions and coronal holes resembles that observed in April, geomagnetically quiet conditions could continue until May 5. In the coming days, a deterioration in ionospheric shortwave propagation can be expected as a result of low solar activity and increased geomagnetic activity.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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