Solar activity forecast for the period February 06 - February 12, 2026

Activity level: low to high
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.5-C5.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 137-198
Events: class C (3-12/day), class M (3-9/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 62-163

Karolina Knesplova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 06 - February 12, 2026

Quiet: Feb 09 - 10
Unsettled: Feb 07 - 09
Active: Feb 06 - 07, 11 - 12
Minor storm:  Feb 06, 12
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

We expect a geomagnetic activity incerase within coming hours. Today (February 5) and tomorrow, we expect geomagnetic activity increase to the active level.
Since February 7, we expect partial activity decrease to unsetteld level, and then, since February 9, at the range of quiet to unsetteld ones.
At the end of currently forecasted period, we expect active conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 06 - February 12, 2026

Solar activity has increased again, so the maximum of the 25th eleven-year cycle continues. This time, active region No. 4366 is primarily responsible for this. It suddenly emerged on January 30 in the southeast of the solar disk in a simple Beta magnetic configuration. The next day, it did not grow, but changed its configuration to Beta-Gamma-Delta, allowing for larger solar flares. Then, on February 1, it increased its area tenfold, while an extremely strong proton flare was observed in it, peaking on February 2 at 0002 UT. Until February 4, it had further doubled in size, with the magnetic configuration remaining Beta-Gamma-Delta, while the production of energetically significant flares continued. One to two X-class flares and several M-class flares are recorded daily, while on February 4, active region No. 4366 crossed the central meridian.

This further increased the likelihood of the Earth being hit by an intensified solar wind and the occurrence of stronger geomagnetic disturbances. Their onset was mostly predicted for February 5, with the possibility of occurring one or two days earlier. This is what happened, with the arrival of the CME recorded on February 4 at 1421 UT and a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic disturbance developing. It is expected to continue until February 6 or possibly February 7. At the same time, the production of energetically significant flares could continue in active region No. 4366 until February 7. At the same time, there will continue a period of slightly increased probability of the Earth being hit by proton of solar origin. A decrease in solar and geomagnetic activity is expected in the following days.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU