Solar activity forecast for the period November 22 - November 28, 2024

Activity level: moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0 - C6.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 100-200
Events: class C (1-14/day), class M (5-20/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 70-250

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 22 - November 28, 2024

Quiet: Nov 22 - 24, 28
Unsettled: Nov 24 - 27
Active: Nov 25 - 26
Minor storm: possible Nov 25
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

Till the coming weekend, we expect at most quiet conditions.
Since Monday, November 25, a geomagnetic activity enhancement is possible.
Since this day, unsettled to active conditions are possible with an unlikely storming effect.
The last day of currently forecasted period, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere November 22 - November 28, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – November 21, 2024

During November, solar activity was relatively lowest in the middle of the month, which happened after the large sunspot groups in the west of the disk had set and before the larger groups in the east came out. The relatively largest of these is designated AR3901 and will pass through the central meridian on November 23. Solar activity will therefore still increase slightly. A more significant rise could perhaps be expected after the rise of the other groups, but their current activity on the far side of the Sun does not appear to be great for now…

The low number and small area and number of coronal holes are the likely cause of the geomagnetically quieter development, which is likely to continue.

November belongs to the autumn DX season, Therefore we can expect continued above-average shortwave propagation conditions. They were admittedly a little worse as a result of the drop in solar radiation, but the rest of the month could, yet, correct this. Which is true for the northern hemisphere of the Earth, where the season of favorable propagation conditions on the longer shortwave bands is already beginning!

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU